Rethinking What Comes Next

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The average size of a new house in the U.S. has doubled since 1970. SHUTTERSTOCK

Thanks as always to Bill McKibben for his view on ways of thinking differently about our shared future:

When Social Distancing Ends, Will We Rethink the World We Want?

Long before the virus, Americans had become socially isolated, retreating into sprawling suburbs and an online world of screens. When we emerge from our pandemic-mandated separation, can we reconnect with each other and reconsider how the way we live impacts the natural world?

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Patterns are notoriously hard to break, even when you have to. Studies find that more than half of smokers diagnosed with lung cancer keep on smoking, even though their odds of survival would go way up if they stopped. Nicotine is powerfully addictive, of course — but we’re beginning to suspect that’s true of lots of other human behaviors too: checking your phone, for instance, which seems strongly linked to the supply of dopamine (which is what nicotine affects as well). One tells oneself that one will change — but change is hard.

Which is one reason the current moment is so interesting. Lay aside the death and the illness and the fear and the economic hardship for a moment, and just think about the sheer unlikeliness of what we’re experiencing. For the first time in most of our lifetimes, the population as a whole has been told we have to shut down normal life, abandon most of our regular routines. That we have to change. It’s hard, but since it’s necessary we’ve done it — and surprisingly well. Yes, there are knuckleheads crowding the beaches, and yes there are scary guys with guns showing up at the Michigan state house. But most people got with the program — hunkered down, sucked it up, and figured out Zoom.

How we behaved during this period of quarantine will fascinate researchers for years to come, I imagine. It’s what they call a “natural experiment,” and I’m willing to bet people are already busy studying everything from cortisol levels to social media patterns to sourdough starter production. But what happens when we are released from detention will be at least as compelling — and for those of us hoping for an environmentally different future, it may be telling. Will habits shift straight back to hour-long commutes and trips to the mall? Or might this strange, sudden bend in our existence — by far the biggest societal detour in my six decades on the planet — leave us thinking differently about the world, and behaving differently in it?

If so then this stretch won’t have been an entire waste. Because the biggest patterns we need to break are obvious: the routines of getting and spending that abuse and exhaust the earth, the habits that leave us tied to screens, instead of in contact with one another or the world around us. Will we stick to the patterns that have helped drive the temperature ever higher, or will we develop some new ones?

One possibility is that when all this is over we will revert straight back to normal, or even to some worse version of it. In search of recovery, nations could respond by trying to prop up old businesses like the fossil fuel industry (indeed, that is what our country is doing). Maybe in cities like New York people who can afford it will abandon the subway for private cars. Privacy and seclusion could become a fetish — at the first sign of trouble many city dwellers who could afford it headed for their second homes in the country. Some may only come back reluctantly or not at all, especially now that they’ve learned to tele-commute. That has its upsides — those of us who live full time in rural America know we could use some more neighbors — but it’s also clear that our cities are more efficient places to live.

But most people won’t change geographically — the question is, will they start to change psychologically in ways that might help build a more sociable future, one that might actually trade stuff for people.

One possibility — and it’s only a possibility — is that we might actually find ourselves embracing gregariousness. In truth, we began social distancing a long time ago. First came the move to the suburbs: In the postwar years, America spent the bulk of its prosperity on the task of building bigger houses farther apart from each other. This caused environmental woes — all those big houses to heat and cool and migrate between — but it also meant that we simply ran into each other less. The average size of a new house has doubled since 1970, even as the number of people living in it has steadily shrunk — the average density of most recent housing developments is about two people per acre, down from about 10 persons per acre for cities, suburbs, and towns in 1920. Between 1974 and 1994 the fraction of Americans who said they frequently visited with their neighbors fell from almost a third to barely a fifth. That number has kept dropping, now less because of suburbanization than because of screens: If you look at teenagers, for instance, a wild behavioral shift is noticeable beginning about 2012 when the numbers of Americans with a smartphone passed the 50 percent mark. The number of young people who got together with their friends in person every day dropped by 40 percent from 2010 to 2015, a curve that seems to be accelerating according to Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University…

Read the whole op-ed here.

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